I am concerned about the growing financial pressures on schools and the need for a new funding formula that better reflects shifting demographics.
In Hampshire, pupil numbers have steadily increased since 2015, but falling birth rates are now starting to reverse this trend—especially in primary schools. While managing rising numbers has led to school expansions in places like Alton, falling rolls bring new challenges, particularly for smaller rural schools.
Because 92% of school funding is based on pupil numbers, even small reductions can strain budgets without reducing core costs like staffing. Updated Department for Education forecasts show Hampshire’s primary numbers could drop by 3.5% by 2028/29, with a further 2.4% decline in secondary pupils by 2030/31.
These changes won’t affect all areas equally - new housing developments may increase demand in some locations, while others see reductions. That’s why I'm arguing for a more localised approach to school place planning and a fairer funding model, especially to support rural schools.
You can read more about this here: Ex-minister calls for school funding rethink as London rolls plummet
