Happy new year. Let us hope for good things for East Hampshire, for Britain and the world.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Our local villages and towns, and our country, have a lot going for them.
But we also have many issues to address, some longstanding but others new. 2026 is likely to be the year the now not-so-new government’s honeymoon expires.
The term 'honeymoon' may sound odd, given how low Sir Keir Starmer’s approval ratings already are (currently sitting at a score of -54). Yet, despite appearances, the government has been operating within a comparatively blessed political window. However difficult things may currently feel for ministers, the reality is that 2026 will be a whole lot tougher.
A traditional honeymoon may only be a fortnight. And political leaders would remind you that even one week is a long time in our trade.
But there is a long-standing rule of thumb in politics, and it is this: new governments enjoy a two-year grace period. During that time, they are largely permitted to blame problems on those who came before them - the awful inheritance, the sins of the parents, the errors of previous administrations. Sound familiar? Sure enough, to this day, almost every government announcement still begins with some variation of “after 14 years of Tory rule” or some such.
That framing has been applied even where outcomes are not just taking time to change, but demonstrably worse than before. Obvious ones being record levels of illegal immigration arrivals, rising welfare spending, the slowdown in house building and rise in homelessness.
At the same time, little is said about the progress the new government inherited - unemployment almost halved between 2010 and 2024, inflation in 2024 on track, big improvements in school results, or the fall in violent crime.
Nor is much acknowledgment given to the extraordinary circumstances faced by the previous government, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the profound economic - and wider - shock of Covid.
This narrative will continue for a few months yet. But if the two-year rule still holds - as it generally has - by about the middle of 2026 these explanations will no longer carry the same weight. Two years is widely considered sufficient time for any administration to get its act together, to establish control, and to deliver. Beyond that point, failures are no longer 'inherited'. They belong squarely to the government in office.
Of course, even in August, September and October of this year, Labour will still try to pin the blame on its predecessors. But public patience has limits. By the second half of 2026, the government will be judged primarily on its own record. And rightly so.
Even before then, the local and mayoral elections scheduled for May 2026 - despite the cancellation of several elections, including that for Mayor of Hampshire - have long been seen by the media and by Labour backbenchers as a crucial moment for Sir Keir’s leadership. They will offer an early indication of whether the government’s explanations are still resonating with voters.
We shall see what happens.