The recently released claimant count data for East Hampshire showed an uptick in the number of people that are currently unemployed.
This increase locally is mitigated by the fact that we have long had historically low unemployment in East Hampshire. It is also only one month’s data, so time will tell if this represents a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a more significant trend.
This increase does, however, align with the national picture, which is more troubling and reflects anecdotal evidence from businesses anticipating future job losses. These concerns come even before the Budget measures take effect in April, particularly the rise in Employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs).
Many believe the rise in NICs will disproportionately impact small businesses, compounding the challenges they’ve faced in recent years. Local businesses, ranging from social care providers to artisan shops, have already been in touch with me to share their concerns about the financial pressures they will face due to increased employment costs.
Let’s not forget that many of these businesses are still feeling the tumultuous impacts of Covid and difficult trading conditions for the last couple of years.
Whilst the rise in the National Living Wage is in itself a positive development, it comes at the same time as the NICs rise and other costs, such as those stemming from the Employment Rights Bill. These rising expenses may well impact businesses' willingness to invest in new staff.
One particularly pressing issue is the rise in business rates. During a recent debate in Westminster, those on the government benches argued that the increase on larger premises would bring more tax revenue from the big online retailers’ distribution centres. That is true, but, as I said in the debate, it would also hit one of our largest employment sectors: supermarkets.
In announcing a reduction of 3,000 job roles last week, Sainsbury’s cited “increased operating cost pressures,” including employer NICs and business rates, as key factors behind their decision.
I hope that all affected employees at the Alton store are receiving the support they need and that many will find opportunities for redeployment within the company, or another position very soon.
There is, I hope, some reason for optimism, because there are right now still considerable vacancies locally.
But these developments raise broader questions about the future of employment in retail and the wider economy.
Low unemployment cannot be taken for granted. When we came into government in 2010, unemployment stood at 8 percent. By the time we left, it had been reduced to 4.5 percent. The government would be wise to adopt a similar focus on maintaining low unemployment levels.
I will continue to advocate for policies that prioritise job creation and retention. Employment is the cornerstone of a thriving society; reducing pressure on the NHS, improving mental health, lowering the benefits bill, raising living standards, and stimulating local economies.
Ultimately, ensuring more people have jobs puts more money into the pockets of individuals and communities, and, in so doing, creates a stronger and more resilient nation for us all.
Damian is pictured above with Xen Gladstone from the Triple fff brewery in Four Marks.