Last summer, Labour swept into government with a landslide majority of over 170. The huge scale of the win in seats (though the vote share was somewhat lower) gave Sir Keir Starmer the political capital to pursue bold reforms, and his team had had much time in opposition to plan their programme for government.
Looking at the positives, Sir Keir has earned plaudits for a number of international efforts and the relationships he has built with key figures, especially the US President. While tariffs on UK exports have still gone up (and sectors like bio ethanol hit) the overall trade situation could have been much worse.
On paper, the ‘Ten-year plan for the NHS’ gets general approval – much of it continues or develops previous plans. The shifts towards prevention and public health, and digital innovation have been widely welcomed. Of course how it all gets implemented in practice is key, and we need to ensure it works in a way that benefits all parts of the country including areas like ours.
In other respects, the government’s first year has disappointed.
The loud pledge they would ‘smash the gangs’ to stop small boat arrivals was a false premise. Work to dismantle trafficking networks has been going on for many years. But the profit motive keeps attracting new people into this wicked trade. Without a credible deterrent - such as removals to third countries - the financial incentives that fuel this trade remain intact. I do regret that the new government scrapped our third-country plan, and small boat arrivals are sharply up.
Then came unexpected and unpopular measures, such as the family farm tax which disproportionately affects East Hampshire, and cuts to the Winter Fuel Allowance, the latter announced before the Chancellor had even fully settled into office, and now partly reversed.
Some manifesto pledges like recruiting more teachers from the VAT charged on private schools have not materialised. Teacher numbers have actually fallen, and it also looks like more children have been displaced from private schools to the state sector than they anticipated.
Housing targets have been massively increased for rural areas like ours (doubling for East Hampshire) whilst actually being cut in some urban areas. And there are doubts anyway that they could be realised.
It’s fair to say that governing has turned out to be more complex than Labour might have anticipated. Policies that seemed clear-cut on paper are proving difficult to implement in practice.
Choices the government made in the Budget have harmed the economy. Increases to employer NICs and other fiscal measures have contributed to rising inflation and youth unemployment. And the effects of new employment rights measures are yet to be felt. Plans to cut welfare spending were shelved after a backbench rebellion, creating a budgetary hole that looks all but certain to require further tax hikes.
The new government said that economic growth was key, and I agree with them about that. Yet many of their subsequent decisions appear to be undermining that aim.
As a responsible opposition it’s our job to scrutinise the government. Actually, we want them to succeed for the good of the country. A year in, the results are, at this stage, disappointing.
Next week I will write about the related question of what it has been like in the first year as an opposition MP.
